Radar on Medicare Advantage

Physician-administered drugs could catch some windfall due to the Inflation Reduction Act’s Medicare Part D redesign.

Much time and energy has been focused on thinking about how drug pricing, rebating and Part D plan design may shift due to changes set to finish taking effect in 2025 including new caps on enrollee out-of-pocket spend and more liability falling on plans rather than taxpayers.

But a “sleeper issue here is what all of this is going to mean for Medicare Part B drugs,” said Avalere’s Kesley Lang on a January webinar on the health policy outlook for the new year.

After reportedly vying with Elevance Health, Inc. for the purchase of The Cigna Group’s Medicare Advantage business, Health Care Service Corp. (HCSC) will buy Cigna’s MA, Medicare Supplemental, Medicare Part D and CareAllies assets for a total transaction value of $3.7 billion. HCSC has been aggressively growing its MA business through service area expansions; the addition of Cigna’s MA lives would boost its current share of the segment from 0.62% to 2.40%, according to AIS’s Directory of Health Plans.

In a press release unveiling the deal, the Chicago-based insurer said the acquisition will accelerate its growth in “an important market segment” and “bring many opportunities to HCSC and its members - including a wider range of product offerings, robust clinical programs and a larger geographic reach.” HCSC is customer-owned, meaning policyholders and not stockholders are the owners, and is an independent licensee of the Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association. Its Blues plans currently enroll 204,638 members across five states: Illinois, Montana, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Texas.

As the first round of fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 financial results were reported by publicly traded insurers in January, modest enrollment growth during the recently concluded Annual Election Period (AEP) and continued utilization pressures were prominent Medicare Advantage themes during earnings calls. Although analysts were particularly concerned with results posted by Humana Inc., which notably moved up its earnings release date, some maintained that the MA-focused insurer remains poised for long-term growth in the sector. 

Humana Inc. on Jan. 25 introduced 2024 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance of “approximately $16” — compared with the Wall Street consensus of $29.14. But that was after a regulatory filing indicated that inpatient utilization was higher than expected in the fourth quarter of 2023, primarily during November and December, “as well as a further increase in non-inpatient trends, predominantly in the categories of physician, outpatient surgeries, and supplemental benefits.” Humana’s stock plummeted after the disclosure, and the impact reverberated throughout the managed care sector, denting the share values of competitors including CVS Health Corp. and Elevance Health, Inc.

While publicly traded insurers’ fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 earnings reported thus far have highlighted concerning trends in Medicare Advantage, a new report from Moody’s Investors Services suggests that the MA market even prior to the current climate is showing “signs of weakening.” Nevertheless, with margins far greater than in other sectors, MA can still be profitable when properly managed and will stay competitive, suggests an analyst with the credit ratings firm.

Among the 10 insurers rated by Moody’s — which account for approximately two-thirds of all MA members — aggregate earnings stemming from MA decreased by 2% from $10.8 billion in 2019 to $10.6 billion in 2022, the most recent year available. During that same period, the aggregate MA earnings margin fell from 4.9% to 3.4% and earnings per member dropped by 28% ($732 to $526). While those earnings remain higher compared to other segments, earnings per member in the Medicaid and commercial segments increased, offsetting the decline in MA for an overall increase of 2.7% to $216 per member, according to the Jan. 23 Moody’s report.