Radar on Medicare Advantage

As the second batch of publicly traded insurers posted fourth-quarter and full-year 2023 financial results, continued utilization pressures in Medicare Advantage remained a prominent theme during earnings calls held in the first two weeks of February. Such pressures prompted Humana Inc. to slash its outlook for 2024, but this month only CVS Health Corp.’s Aetna lowered its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance, while The Cigna Group — which is planning to sell its relatively small MA business — raised its outlook.

CVS Health Corp. on Feb. 7 reported fourth-quarter adjusted EPS of $2.12 and full-year adjusted EPS of $8.74. Consolidated revenue grew 11.9% year over year to $93.8 billion, while revenue for the Health Care Benefits segment, which includes Aetna’s MA business, increased 16% to nearly $27 billion. CVS Health said it added 1.3 million members in 2023, which reflected growth across multiple product lines.

As Medicare members become increasingly comfortable with using technology to manage their care at home, tech-enabled vendors continue to flood the Medicare Advantage space to offer solutions aimed at everything from fall prevention and functional mobility to specific conditions like Alzheimer’s and cardiovascular disease. Speaking at the 7th Annual Medicare Advantage Leadership Innovations forum, held Jan. 30 and 31 in Scottsdale, Arizona, vendors and MA plans shared the nuanced and personalized approaches they’ve taken to engage seniors with digital solutions.

“I think one of the challenges with [seniors and] technology is trying to really navigate tension between high tech and high touch. And I think that’s one of the things that you need to really figure out with your members early on: What are their preferences and needs? What resources do they have available?” said Joel Salinas, M.D., chief medical officer with Isaac Health, who spoke on a member engagement panel moderated by AIS Health, a division of MMIT.

“Subpar” Medicare Advantage provider networks are costing the Medicare Advantage industry approximately $23 billion a year, according to Quest Analytics. That was just one of the staggering statistics shared at the 7th Annual Medicare Advantage Leadership Innovations forum, held Jan. 30 and 31 in Scottsdale, Arizona. As speakers discussed common industry themes of health equity, member engagement and quality improvement, the following percentages and dollar amounts helped to illustrate the impact of addressing (or failing to address) these and other health care issues. Click the quote icons below to see what presenters had to say about each one.  

As CMS proceeds with its planned phase-in of changes to the CMS-Hierarchical Condition Categories (HCC) risk adjustment model starting this year, the agency on Jan. 31 projected that Medicare Advantage plans next year can expect to receive an average increase of 3.70% in risk adjusted revenue. After picking apart the various factors that go into that assumption, however, the industry is bracing for an effective rate reduction, along with significant changes to the Part D benefit that incited proposed updates to the RxHCC risk adjustment model used to calculate direct subsidy payments to Part D plans.

CMS this time last year projected an all-in rate increase of 1.03%, which included an effective growth rate of 2.09% and expected revenue declines of -3.12% — stemming from changes to the CMS-HCC risk model and fee-for-service (FFS) normalization — and -1.24% due to changes in Star Ratings from the prior year. The agency also estimated an underlying MA risk score trend of 3.30%. Subsequent studies suggested that the removal of thousands of diagnosis codes, renumbering of several HCCs, and other technical changes would reduce plans’ risk scores by anywhere from 2% to 14%. In the final rate notice, CMS revised its all-in rate increase projection to 3.32% after deciding to phase in the risk model changes over a three-year period.

Seniors who experienced fluctuations in eligibility for Medicare Part D’s low-income subsidy (LIS) spent more money on prescription drugs and filled fewer prescriptions overall, according to new research published in JAMA Health Forum. While researchers said questions remain about whether these temporary losses can impact medication adherence and health outcomes — particularly among non-white seniors — policymakers should consider streamlining LIS eligibility systems to reduce administrative barriers. 

In 2023, 13.4 million Part D beneficiaries received full or partial LIS benefits. The program provides assistance with paying premiums and deductibles, and it reduces any post-deductible cost sharing for beneficiaries. The majority of LIS beneficiaries are “deemed,” meaning they are automatically enrolled in the program based on dual eligibility with Medicaid and/or enrollment in a Medicare Savings Program (MSP). (This also includes non-duals who receive Supplemental Security Income.) But 17% of LIS beneficiaries are “nondeemed,” meaning they are not enrolled in Medicaid or an MSP and must apply for LIS themselves. All LIS beneficiaries undergo annual redeterminations, but the process for deemed beneficiaries is automatic, leaving the nondeemed population to face potential administrative challenges and unnecessary coverage loss.