Radar on Medicare Advantage

As publicly traded insurers report their third-quarter 2023 financials this fall, two of the Medicare Advantage organizations most impacted by the 2024 Star Ratings recently expressed confidence in their ability to regain higher marks, driven in part by increased adoption of value-based care models.

For the quarter ending Sept. 30, Elevance Health, Inc. beat Wall Street expectations with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $8.99, an increase of roughly 20% over the third quarter of 2022, and recorded operating revenue of $42.5 billion, up 7.2% from the prior-year quarter. Its health benefits operating margin of 5.0% was also above consensus, aided by a medical loss ratio of 86.8%, which came in lower (better) than 87.2% reported in the year-ago quarter — fundamentals that Goldman Sachs viewed as “generally favorable” in an Oct. 18 note to investors. The insurer ended the quarter with 47.3 million medical members, a year-over-year increase of 42,000 lives, reflecting growth in its Affordable Care Act, BlueCard and MA businesses. During the quarter, however, membership fell by 664,000, driven by attrition in Medicaid due to eligibility redeterminations and a new entrant into one of the insurer’s state programs in July, explained Chief Financial Officer John Gallina during a conference call held on Oct. 18 to discuss third-quarter 2023 earnings.

“Wheel of deceit.” “Sleazy, private sector scoundrels.” The transfer of personal information “from one moneygrubbing hand to another.” These are just a few of the verbal gems dropped by Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) when, during a recent hearing on Capitol Hill, he described the billion-dollar third-party Medicare marketing machine that has been under increased scrutiny by Congress, consumer advocates and researchers.  

But beyond Wyden’s descriptive remarks, the Senate Finance Committee chair and other lawmakers queried stakeholders about real solutions to rein in misleading marketing practices and improve seniors’ shopping experience. Suggestions that came up on multiple occasions included prohibiting the transfer of beneficiary information from one lead generator to another, putting additional limits on the fees brokers earn for enrolling MA members, penalizing MA insurers for the actions of third-party marketers, and increasing transparency around the full cost associated with enrolling in an MA plan.  

Only 42% of Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MA-PD) contracts that will be offered in 2024 achieved an overall rating of 4 stars or higher, compared with approximately 51% of contracts in 2023, according to the latest Medicare Part C and Part D Star Ratings data. Weighted by enrollment, the average MA-PD Star Rating fell from 4.14 for 2023 to 4.04, with approximately 74% of MA-PD enrollees estimated to be enrolled in contracts that achieved 4 or more stars for 2024, compared with 72% for 2023, CMS reported on Oct. 13.

Those changes were largely expected due to the application of the new Tukey outlier deletion methodology, which was used in determining the cut points for measures not directly related to member experience and largely achieved CMS’s stated goal of infusing more “predictability and stability” into the Star Ratings.

Payer anxieties about lower Star Ratings for the 2024 plan year came to fruition last week with CMS’s release of the annual Part C and Part D quality measurements. The average Medicare Advantage Prescription Drug (MA-PD) contract scored a 4.04, down from 4.14 last year and the lowest average rating since 2017. Just 31 contracts received 5 stars, representing 6.8% of current MA-PD enrollment, vs. 57 contracts serving 21.5% of enrollees last year.

Several methodology changes fueled the ratings decline, which Stars experts have dubbed "TukeyGate," referring to CMS efforts to remove outliers from calculating the cut points for non-Consumer Assessment of Healthcare Providers and Systems (CAHPS) measures. The agency also added two new Part C measures, one for care transitions and another for follow-ups after emergency visits for people with high-risk chronic conditions. A Part C measure on kidney disease monitoring for diabetes patients was removed.