Radar on Medicare Advantage

From Star Ratings and risk model changes to a significant overhaul of the Medicare Part D benefit that will take effect over the next few years, Medicare Advantage insurers this year must anticipate the potential impact of major changes and ensure their products and services continue to satisfy members. Investment priorities highlighted by three influential MA carriers include digital solutions, member engagement strategies and value-based care.

Humana Inc., for one, took a “thoughtful approach to bids to ensure we were meeting members’ needs while balancing the rate environment,” says George Renaudin, president and Medicare and Medicaid. That included maintaining or enhancing key benefits that were identified by consumers and brokers as most critical to members, such as $0 premiums, dental and Part B “givebacks.”

With the recent filing of two proposed class action lawsuits against major Medicare Advantage insurers’ use of a computer algorithm to deny patient care, upcoming CMS audits of MA plans’ utilization management (UM) tactics and progressive lawmakers’ push for CMS to collect more data on coverage denials, the MA program is starting the year off under a microscope. And while major new policy developments are unlikely to come out of a split Congress this year, industry experts agree that prior authorization — along with risk adjustment and coding intensity — will continue to garner attention from lawmakers and regulators.

HealthScape Advisors Principal Cary Badger and Managing Director Alexis Seeder Levy point to three possible regulatory scenarios to watch for in 2024:  

The Cigna Group may sell its Medicare Advantage business to Health Care Service Corp. for between $3 billion and $4 billion, according to the Wall Street Journal. After Cigna and Humana Inc. reportedly abandoned their rumored talks of combining, Bloomberg last month reported that HCSC and Elevance Health, Inc. were competing to buy Cigna’s MA segment. Sources close to the matter said Cigna is in “exclusive talks” with HCSC, which operates Blue Cross and Blue Shield plans in five states, the Wall Street Journal reported on Jan. 3. 

After securing an amended credit agreement with JP Morgan, Bright Health Group, Inc. on Jan 1. finalized the previously announced sale of its Medicare Advantage assets to Molina Healthcare, Inc. The technology-driven startup on Dec. 29 said an amendment to its credit facility with JP Morgan would reduce the final repayment amount by roughly $30 million to approximately $298 million. With the close of the MA sale — which involves the California plans Brand New Day and Central Health Plan — the company has eliminated its secured debt and will use the remaining proceeds of the sale to “provide a solid foundation” for advancing its NeueHealth accountable care organization business, according to a Jan. 2 press release. Molina in December said it would buy the MA plans for approximately $425 million, down from the originally announced $510 million; analysts speculated the discount had to do with underperformance in Bright’s MA business due to heightened Medicare utilization trends in 2023.

With the filing of a proposed class action lawsuit this month, Humana Inc. became the third major insurer in recent history to be accused of using artificial intelligence to wrongfully deny patients’ care and the second insurer to face allegations specific to Medicare Advantage members. While industry experts agree that AI holds promise for improving the patient experience, it also comes with risks, and lawsuits and other regulatory actions offer a warning to insurers of all types to come up with a proper risk mitigation strategy as they increasingly deploy AI to streamline certain operations.  

In the Dec. 12 complaint, which was filed in the U.S. District Court for the Western District of Kentucky, Humana MA members accuse the insurer of relying on the nH Predict AI model to make “rigid and unrealistic” projections for how long a patient will require post-acute care after an inpatient hospital stay. The AI model was developed by naviHealth, a subsidiary of UnitedHealth Group, and was the subject of a highly critical investigation published by STAT in November and subsequent lawsuit filed against UnitedHealth by the estates of two deceased MA members.