Radar on Medicare Advantage

As part of CMS and the Biden administration’s overall framework for health equity, Medicare Advantage organizations’ ability to assess social risk factors (SRFs) and address care disparities has taken on new importance this year, thanks to the introduction of the Health Equity Index (HEI) to the Star Ratings. Starting in 2027, insurers won’t be penalized for failing to close gaps in care on certain quality measures, but qualifying Parts C and D sponsors will be rewarded if they perform well on the HEI, which CMS has described as a “methodological enhancement” to a subset of existing measures. Quality experts say readiness varies across the industry, and plans need to better understand where to target interventions and where they stack up against other plans that may qualify for the HEI.

And not all plans will qualify: Contracts that enroll a minimum threshold percentage of enrollees with social risk factors (SRFs) will be assessed and divided into three tiers of performance. Plans that perform in the top tier will receive 1 point, the middle tier will receive 0 points, and the bottom tier is assigned -1 point for each measure. After a series of calculations, the points translate to an HEI score that ultimately determines whether plans receive a reward that is applied to quality bonus payments for the 2027 Star Ratings.

After major insurers reported second-quarter financial results that reflected continued medical cost pressure in the government business, analysts revisited their takes on expectations for CVS Health Corp.’s Aetna, Centene Corp. and industry peers. Two notable factors driving some of the headwinds in the back half of the year are the 2025 Medicare Annual Election Period (AEP), which kicks off on Oct. 15, and the impact of Medicaid redeterminations. The latter was of particular concern to analysts after Sept. 4, when Centene provided an update at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference signaling lower-than-expected Medicaid enrollment.  

For managed care organizations with a large Medicaid footprint, the consistent takeaway for Barclays after second-quarter earnings reports was “incremental trend pressure relative to current expectations,” stemming from redeterminations picking up in the first half of the year “that put increased acuity pressure on state rates,” wrote equity research analysts on Aug. 22. “From here, membership should start to stabilize, which is the first step toward recovery.”

Centene Corp. late last month riled agents and brokers with the news that it would no longer pay new and renewal commissions for enrollments in its stand-alone Prescription Drug Plan (PDP) products. During a Sept. 4 presentation at the Wells Fargo Healthcare Conference, Centene executives for the first time publicly acknowledged the firm’s controversial decision.

“One important thing to note on PDP, partly because of the IRA [Inflation Reduction Act] changes and then final rate notice provisions at the time that we filed bids, we made the difficult decision to eliminate broker commissions this year for PDP only,” Centene CEO Sarah London emphasized during the conference. She added that “we'll continue to pay full commissions in Medicare Advantage and obviously work very closely with the broker community to support the work they do, to support our members.”

The countdown is on until the 2025 Medicare Annual Election Period (AEP), which runs annually from Oct. 15 through Dec. 7, and Medicare Advantage plans are anxiously awaiting intel on how their competitors responded to upcoming Medicare Part D changes stemming from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). And while marketing rules remain largely unchanged this AEP — thanks to a district court putting CMS’s plans to restructure broker compensation on hold — the 2025 AEP is likely to throw plans more than a few curveballs.

Those were just some of the takeaways shared by industry veterans during an Aug. 22 webinar, “2025 AEP Sales Strategy in the New Regulated Environment,” which was co-hosted by EvolveNXT and Rebellis Group.