’25 Stars Info Spooks Humana Investors, Stokes Fears About Industry Decline

“Truly shocking” and “huge setback” were just two of a flood of analyst reactions to Humana Inc.’s Oct. 2 disclosure that its percentage of Medicare Advantage members in plans with 4 or more stars will plummet to 25% next year. That’s down from an estimated 94% for 2024 and is largely the result of a decline in Star Ratings for its largest contract, according to a new filing from Humana. Although the full set of Star Ratings data won’t be released until next week, this development confirmed industry fears that rising cut points will diminish ratings — and related revenue.  

In advance of the Medicare Annual Election Period that starts on Oct. 15, preliminary Stars data became available in the CMS Medicare Plan Finder on Oct. 1. According to Humana’s filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), contract H5216 fell from a 4.5-star rating to a 3.5-star rating for next year, which impacts quality bonus payments in 2026. That contract holds approximately 45% of Humana’s MA membership, including more than 90% of its group MA membership, Humana clarified.