Pandemic’s Long Tail Will Shape 2023 Premiums

Researchers from the American Academy of Actuaries expect the most notable factors in 2023’s health insurance premium rate-setting will be COVID-19 variants, the expiration of enhanced premium subsidies in the individual marketplace, the resumption of Medicaid eligibility redeterminations, inflation and provider labor shortages — a combination of public health, policy and economic factors that represent the long tail of the COVID-19 pandemic. 

The impact of COVID-19 is still difficult to model. New variants to the virus and regional outbreaks mean that plan-level analysis is fraught. But the cost of hospitalization and a consistent standard of care mean that plans have a useful base for modeling.