News Briefs: Per Capita Health Spending Seems to Be Slowing

In 2024, per capita health spending growth is estimated to have slowed to 4.5%, and growth is expected to slow further in 2025 and 2026 to 4.2% and 4.3%, according to the Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker. The chart collection, which uses National Health Expenditure projections from federal actuaries, also found that from 2027-2032, per capita spending growth is projected to moderate at an average annual rate of 5%. Looking at the data by payer, Medicaid is an outlier: CMS actuaries project that per-enrollee Medicaid spending will grow by 10.2% in 2024, the highest rate in over 30 years, but it will average 5.4% between 2025 and 2032 since the expiration of the pandemic-era continuous enrollment provisions will provide for more normalized enrollment. From 2025-2032, per-enrollee Medicare spending growth is expected to range between 4.9% and 6.5%, while per-enrollee spending growth in the private insurance market is expected to decelerate in 2025 and 2026 to an average of 4.9% annually. And from 2027-2032, per-enrollee private insurance spending growth is expected to stay between 4.6% and 5.1%.