Elevated Outpatient Care, No Recession: 2023 Has Surprised Analysts

Three quarters into 2023, Moody’s Investors Service says the predictions it made at the start of the year for the health insurance sector — namely, earnings growth in the mid-to-high single digits — have largely proven accurate. However, while financial results were consistent with the credit rating firm’s expectations, analysts said in a new report that the reasons for those results were not exactly what they predicted. 

“Our outlook was premised on reduced membership as a result of Medicaid redeterminations and the impact of a possible recession on commercial membership,” the analysts wrote in a report released on Nov. 20. “However, with no recession this year, commercial membership has been better than expected, but its growth has been offset by higher-than-expected MA [Medicare Advantage] utilization.” Additionally, “although Medicaid redeterminations are underway, their impact so far has been relatively small.”