Health Plan Weekly

With a suspect now charged in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, the fierce debate continues over what the crime has revealed about simmering dissatisfaction with the U.S. health insurance system. 

Luigi Mangione, a 26-year-old Ivy League graduate from a prominent Maryland family, was captured on Dec. 9 in Altoona, Pennsylvania, after being recognized in a McDonald’s restaurant. Mangione is facing a murder charge related to Thompson’s Dec. 4 death. Police said the 50-year-old executive was gunned down by a shooter who was “lying in wait” outside the Midtown Manhattan hotel where UnitedHealth Group, the parent company of UnitedHealthcare, was set to hold its annual Investor Day conference.  

During its Investor Day on Dec. 12, Centene Corp. projected it would have adjusted earnings per share (EPS) next year of at least $7.25, above the Wall Street consensus of $7.05. Wells Fargo analyst Stephen Baxter wrote in a Dec. 12 note that “barring any surprises,” the guidance was “a positive” and “modestly favorable.”  

The adjusted EPS guidance represents a 6.6% increase over this year’s projection of at least $6.80 and comes amid a Medicaid market that Centene CEO Sarah London noted “has experienced a period of intense disruption over the last 18 months” due to the redetermination process that began in April 2023. Since then, millions of Medicaid beneficiaries have lost coverage, while the remaining Medicaid members have, on average, been sicker and used more services even as reimbursement rates to insurers have not always increased in line with the higher costs. 

While many upcoming health care policies remain unclear, potential changes brought about by the Trump administration will be a net negative credit-wise for the industry, according to an S&P Global Ratings analyst. 

In a Dec. 2 article, analyst Arthur Wong named the top five developments S&P Global is watching: the Affordable Care Act, Medicare drug pricing negotiations in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), the Federal Trade Commission’s (FTC) tone on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) and tariffs, and HHS priorities. “We do not envision any rating changes due to the change in administration until it becomes clear what policies will be implemented and their time frame,” Wong wrote. “However, we see more downside than upside risk to ratings over the near term.”